(Re)in Summary
- Karl Marshall, formerly QBE’s global chief actuary, joined Howden Re in March 2024 as head of advisory and analytics, APAC.
- He believes broker investment in analytics in Australia and New Zealand has fallen over 20 years.
- Marshall argues clients should see the uncertainty around a result, not just a single figure.
- He sees AI as support for specialists, not a replacement, and expects more risk-based capital regimes to push insurers to use reinsurance to manage capital.
With experience as QBE’s global chief actuary and as appointed actuary for several insurers in Australia and New Zealand, Karl Marshall has the kind of background an ambitious broking firm like Howden Re was quick to spot.
Following a casual conversation, a senior figure at Howden Re invited Marshall to consider joining the broker, though no specific role had been defined at the time.
That was resolved in March 2024, when Marshall joined as head of advisory and analytics, Asia Pacific (APAC).
Marshall saw a clear opportunity. In his view, investment in analytics among broking firms in Australia and New Zealand had waned.
“20 years ago, the market was stronger than it is now. We’ve gone backwards,” he says.
“I felt like there was an opportunity to try and reverse that trend.”
Today, Marshall leads a team advising clients on reinsurance strategies that support their capital needs and help manage earnings volatility, while developing Howden Re’s analytics capabilities across the region.
“20 years ago, the market was stronger than it is now. We’ve gone backwards. I felt like there was an opportunity to try and reverse that trend.”
Karl Marshall
Managing director, head of advisory and analytics APAC at Howden Re
The Marshall way
Central to Marshall’s approach is a professional philosophy built around what he calls “skill set, toolset and mindset”.
Mindset is crucial: analysts need to turn model outputs into practical decisions for clients, not simply deliver numbers.
His clearest example is a catastrophe-cover review. A client asked Marshall’s team to independently assess whether its cover was sufficient.
The existing broker’s estimate fell within the range produced by Marshall’s team. The difference was how they presented the uncertainty around it.
Rather than offer a single definitive figure, they showed the client a wider range of possible outcomes.
The client decided to buy more cover, opting for protection towards the higher end of that range.
For Marshall, the example illustrates what analytics should achieve: not simply producing a number, but helping clients understand the uncertainty around it and make better decisions.
“The ones that succeed are saying, ‘What does this all mean for you? What can you do better based on this? What can you change based on this?’”
Regional differences
APAC is not a single, homogeneous reinsurance market. For Marshall, one of its defining features is the difference in how insurers understand risk, capital and reinsurance.
Australia and New Zealand are mature markets, where insurers increasingly weigh the cost of ceded capital against retained risk.
Reinsurance is used not only for catastrophe protection, but to manage capital requirements and earnings volatility.
Japan is also advanced, while other markets are at different stages of developing risk-based capital frameworks.
In some, reinsurance purchasing remains more traditional.
Marshall describes the approach: “That’s what we did last year. That’s what we’re going to do this year. That’s going to be next year. Set and forget. So there’s not a lot of thought that goes into that.”
He links much of this difference to regulation. Where risk-based capital regimes are established, insurers tend to ask more considered questions about how reinsurance can optimise capital. Elsewhere, purchasing and analysis may remain more basic.
A similar divide exists in catastrophe modelling. Markets with greater exposure, modelling investment and government involvement—including Australia, New Zealand and Japan—tend to have more developed models and sophisticated risk solutions.
In parts of Southeast Asia, models are still evolving, which can limit the choices insurers consider.
Marshall stresses this is not down to a lack of talent, but to markets having different systems and levels of maturity.
That creates an opportunity for his team: bringing ideas developed in more advanced markets into local conversations and adapting them to local needs.
Combined with Howden Re’s ability to draw on expertise in London and Europe, it gives clients access to both regional knowledge and wider global capabilities.
“AI is about providing us with tools that enable us to make better decisions faster. However, we need to be comfortable with what it is telling us, we need to be comfortable with what it is saying.”
Karl Marshall
Managing Director, Head of Advisory and Analytics APAC at Howden Re
The AI conundrum
As organisations face growing expectations to deploy artificial intelligence, Marshall has a clear view about the role it should play.
He sees a gap between the industry’s enthusiasm for AI and its practical use. Machine learning and automated pricing have been used in general insurance for years, with models generating insights for actuaries to assess.
His concern is adopting AI simply to appear innovative. Some organisations allow it to drive decisions without fully understanding its outputs; others deploy it without a clear purpose.
“We still need to be the ones making the decisions,” he says. “And ensuring that we’re still owning the solution to a particular problem.”
Marshall therefore sees AI as an enabler, not a replacement for actuarial and catastrophe specialists. It can automate work and help teams make decisions faster, freeing experts to concentrate on interpretation and client advice.
The opportunity is to find applications that deliver genuine value and ‘turbocharge’ people’s work.
“AI is about providing us with tools that enable us to make better decisions faster. However, we need to be comfortable with what it is telling us, we need to be comfortable with what it is saying.”
The regulatory opportunity
The differences between APAC markets also create an opportunity as more jurisdictions develop risk-based approaches to capital.
As these frameworks mature, insurers have greater reason to think about reinsurance as more than protection against catastrophe and other risks.
They can consider the cost of transferring risk versus retaining it, and how reinsurance can support capital efficiency and manage earnings volatility.
For Marshall, that should create greater demand for the kind of analytical approach his team provides – moving reinsurance away from a ‘set and forget’ renewal decision towards a broader strategic discussion.
“We’re well placed to help them solve the problems of the future, not just the problems of the past,” Marshall says.
In APAC’s ever-changing reinsurance market, Marshall’s focus remains firmly on what analytics can actually achieve: better decisions for clients.
