(Re)in Summary
- El Niño is expected to strengthen through the second half of 2026, favouring more intense storms in the Western North Pacific, SCOR’s latest report finds.
- Typhoons forming farther east are more likely to recurve northward, increasing landfall risk for Japan and Korea, the reinsurer said.
- SCOR found normalised Asia-Pacific typhoon insured losses during El Niño years have historically been about 30% above the long-term mean.
- The Philippines and Vietnam could face a relatively lower typhoon threat as storm activity shifts eastward and northward.
- El Niño is also expected to bring drier, warmer conditions to Southeast Asia and raise drought and wildfire risks in Australia.
The 2026 Western North Pacific typhoon season is likely to be more active than normal, with an elevated landfall risk for Japan and Korea, as an intensifying El Niño reshapes storm formation across the basin, according to a report by global reinsurer SCOR.
Current outlooks point to near-normal to below-normal typhoon activity affecting the Philippines, even as overall basin activity picks up, the report said.
El Niño conditions are already present in the Pacific as of August 2026 and are expected to strengthen through the second half of the year, persisting into early 2027.
While El Niño does not necessarily increase the overall number of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones, SCOR said it favours the development of more intense storms. During El Niño years, tropical cyclones tend to form farther east over warmer waters, raising the likelihood of storms reaching typhoon intensity.
Storms that develop farther east are also more likely to recurve northward, raising the risk of impacts in Japan and Korea while reducing the relative threat to parts of Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam.
The shift could have a significant impact on insured losses. SCOR’s analysis found that normalised Asia-Pacific typhoon insured losses during El Niño years have historically been about 30% above the long-term mean.
Across Southeast Asia and the maritime continent, including Indonesia, Malaysia and parts of the Philippines, El Niño generally brings drier and warmer conditions as tropical convection shifts eastward, leaving regions such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea with below-average rainfall.
Australia is also particularly sensitive, with El Niño increasing the risk of drought, agricultural losses and wildfires across eastern and northern areas.
The Asia-Pacific typhoon outlook contrasts sharply with the Atlantic basin, where El Niño tends to suppress tropical cyclone development. Increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic can limit storm formation.
SCOR estimates that normalised hurricane losses during El Niño years are approximately 58% lower than during La Niña years.
The reinsurer cautioned that the historical skill of July seasonal forecasts for Atlantic activity is only moderate and uncertainty remains significant. A single landfalling hurricane can still generate substantial insured losses during an otherwise quiet season.
SCOR’s findings align with Munich Re’s July report, which warned that a developing El Niño phase could drive a more active northwest Pacific typhoon season in 2026, lifting risk for Greater China, Korea, and Japan. July typhoons in China and a major earthquake in Japan reinforced the outlook, even as regional losses remained below average in H1 2026.
